After a beating by Man City, OPTA predicts Man Utd’s Premier League finish

Every Premier League fan watched as Manchester City’s superior second-half performance blasted Ten Hag’s Man United squad. After netting twice, Erling Haaland set up Phil Foden to finish off with a sophisticated victory.

OPTA uses its renowned supercomputer to undertake 10,000 simulations of the remaining matchups for the season. To determine what is most likely to happen over the next several months, an Elo-based grading system and a combination of betting odds are used to rank each club and their prospective finishing place at the end of the season.

Following the biggest northern English derby last Sunday, here are some predictions for United’s performance in the remaining Premier League games. 

OPTA’s supercomputer has predicted that United will close the season in as low as 8th place, where they currently occupy after 10 games of the season, based on their current form. In the history of the Premier League, the 13-time winners of the championship have never finished lower than seventh in the standings, with their lowest point being during the 2013–14 season, which was the only season David Moyes led as Sir Alex Ferguson’s replacement.

Even if another domestic cup is won, Ten Hag’s tenure at Old Trafford will undoubtedly come to an end after winning the EFL Cup in his rookie season with a pitiful eighth-place finish outside of the European spots. Eighth place seems quite generous considering the average effort United put out against rivals Manchester City on Sunday. Eventually, City finished with the second-highest xG statistic of any Premier League side this season, and United were lucky to have only let up three goals.

After City seized the lead in the first half, United barely looked like adding to their 98 minutes of lead-time in the top division this season. The only teams in the current bottom four of the standings that have been ahead are Bournemouth, Sheffield United, and Luton. Unsurprisingly, the Cityzens are once again the clear favourites to win four consecutive league titles, something no other team in England’s top flight has ever accomplished.  

Tottenham Hotspur is only two points ahead of Pep Guardiola’s team at the top of the division, even though his team is now in the strange position of third place. Despite breaking records with 26 points out of a possible 30, Ange Postecoglou’s leaders are still predicted to finish in fourth place by May.

Arsenal and City are tied with 24 points after 10 games, but neither team is considered the reigning champions’ main rival. That honour goes to Liverpool. But for Manchester United, the very mention of winning the title is already considered unrealistic. More bad news is that United’s chances of winning the Premier League this season are exactly 0%, according to OPTA’s calculations.